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Impacts and Indicators
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Long Term Sea Level Change
Data and figures providing information on global sea level changes provided by tide gauge data and by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. From the Center for Space Research, University of Texas.
http://www.csr.utexas.edu/gmsl/main.html

National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC): State of the Cryosphere
Information on the status of sea ice, freshwater ice, snow, glaciers, and permafrost. Includes data sets with search facility, details of projects and research, news articles, and links to data providers.
http://nsidc.org/NASA/SOTC/index.html

US Environmental Health Information Service - Global Warming
Government reports into the likely effects of climate change on public health. Includes news and research reports, and links to related articles.
http://ehis.niehs.nih.gov/topic/global/toc.html

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Working Group 2 : Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Assesses the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of climate change.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/ipcc/

Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution (OSDPD)
Graphical presentation from the US Government National Environment Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Includes charts for sea surface temperatures, aerosol optical thickness, coral bleaching hotspots, precipitation, volcanic ash, and a snow and ice mapping system.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/

Temperature Trends: Atmospheric (Satellite MSU - RSS)
One of two conflicting analyses of atmospheric temperatures derived from satellite observations. Browse images and download data. From Remote Sensing Systems, in collaboration with the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory.
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html

Government of British Columbia: Climate Change
Provides news, detailed environmental reports and related policy documents. The report "Indicators of Climate Change in BC" is available in PDF format or to view by topic area with technical background papers and references for each topic.
http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/air/climate/

Proposed Set of Climate Change State and Impact Indicators in Europe
The November 2002 technical report to the European Environmental Agency, by the European Topic Center for Air and Climate Change. Describes the main trends and their effects on ecosystems, human health, and socio-economic sectors. Includes background information and sources of data.
http://www.alpenforum.org/technical-report.pdf

Synoptic Dendroclimatology: Central to Eastern Canada
Reconstruction of spatiotemporal warm season drought severity over a 220-year period using tree-ring chronologies distributed across the southern Canadian boreal forest. Discusses the implications of large scale atmospheric circulation shifts.
http://io.uwinnipeg.ca/~mgirardi/

British Antarctic Survey - Climate Change
An introduction to the relationship between the Antarctic ice cap and global climate change, as well as a regularly updated position statement on the latest science.
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/Key_Topics/Climate_Change/index.html

Bering Sea Climate and Ecosystem
Essays on the relevance of weather, climate and fisheries to the ecosystem. Includes sea ice datasets, recent trends, maps, and photographs.
http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) - Working Group 1 : The Scientific Basis of Climate Change
Analyses a body of observations of all parts of the climate system; catalogues increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases; assesses the processes and feedbacks which govern the climate system.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/001.htm

Climate Monitor
Regular updates of climate and meteorological data, plus press and media commentaries. Includes monthly weather summaries and climate time visualisation, with links to the main data pages of the Climate Research Unit and relevant sites.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/climon/

Ocean and Climate Change Institute: Abrupt Climate Change
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's study of the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation, and research into changing salt levels.
http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm

Global Warming and Hurricanes
Examines the likely changes in worldwide hurricane activity in the 21st century. Includes graphs and diagrams, links to theoretical papers, and a research report.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html

Science Daily: Earth and Climate News
A daily news update of the latest research into climate change. Includes links to archived articles about ecology and environmental science.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate.htm

Global Warming Map: Early Warning Signs
Illustrates observed consequences, as indicated by periods of unusually warm weather, coastal flooding, and changes in glaciers and polar regions.
http://www.climatehotmap.org/

Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) Project
Information from an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) core project for research on responses to rising carbon dioxide levels and other perturbations.
http://www.gcte.org

Climate Change and Human Health
Aims to characterize and communicate scientific research, through integrated assessment, to support analysis and policy development. A program of the John Hopkins University, Baltimore.
http://www.jhu.edu/~climate/

Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS): Coral Bleaching Index
The results of reef monitoring and regional surveys are used to provide up to date information on the status of corals around the world. Includes details of facilities, services, and current research projects.
http://www.aims.gov.au/pages/search/search-coral-bleaching.html

Global Sea Level Change: Determination and Interpretation
Full text of a detailed report published by the American Geophysical Union.
http://earth.agu.org/revgeophys/dougla01/dougla01.html

Polar Science Center - Thinning of Arctic Ice
A comparison of sea-ice draft data acquired on submarine cruises between 1993 and 1997 with similar data acquired between 1958 and 1976.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/thinning/thinning.html

Environment Canada Ecosystem Information: The Pacific and Yukon Region
Includes state of the environment reporting, a dynamic set of environmental indicators, programs and reports on ecosystem science, monitoring, and research.
http://www.ecoinfo.org/index_e.cfm

Biodiversity and Climate Change Programme
Reports and assesses threats to specific species and habitats. Includes a link to the report "Water Birds on the Edge - First Circumpolar Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Arctic Breeding Water Birds" in PDF format. From the World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, UK.
http://www.unep-wcmc.org/climate/home.htm

Glacier National Park: Biodiversity Paper
Discusses the present and future effects of global warming on biological diversity within the mountainous regions of northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia.
http://www.nps.gov/glac/resources/bio7.htm#Global

World View of Global Warming
Photographic documentation of change in the Arctic, Antarctica, glaciers, temperate climate zones, and the ocean. Focuses on effects such as shrinking glaciers, coral bleaching, insect and animal range changes, phenology, and rising sea level.
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/index.html

US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Seminar: Amphibian Declines in the Cloud Forests of Costa Rica
Report of a case study into the present and future consequences of global warming for highland tropical forest ecosystems. A brief overview of the collapse of the entire amphibian fauna of Monteverde Cloud Forest, including the disappearance of the Golden Toad.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/990929FO.html

AmphibiaWeb: Declining Amphibian Populations
Summarizes some of the evidence of climate change around the world. Describes direct effects such as phenology, decline and extinction, and indirect effects such as decreased immune function due to increased exposure of amphibian embryos to ultraviolet radiation.
http://www.amphibiaweb.org/aw/declines/ClimateChange.html

Effects of Global Warming on Trout and Salmon in US Streams
A detailed report of results from a simulation study, estimating how stream temperatures will respond to changes in air temperature, and assessing the vulnerability of fish species to changes in availability of suitable habitat. Includes statistics, graphs, maps, and photographs.
http://www.defenders.org/publications/fishreport.pdf

Climate Change and Wildlife
An overview including brief details of the various responses, from changed habits to species decline, of marine and freshwater fish, insects and other invertebrates, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, and birds.
http://www.climatechangeconnection.org/pdfs_ccc/wildlife.pdf

On Thin Ice: Hudson Bay Polar Bears
Examines the threat to the polar bear population at the southern extreme of the species' domain as Arctic seas thaw earlier and freeze later, bringing shorter periods of hunting on the ice and extra weeks of fasting. Provides evidence that this results in a drop in birth rate and an increase in cub mortality.
http://www.defenders.org/magazinenew/Fall2001/polar.pdf

Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
Observed climate trends simulated in an atmospheric model. Evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozone-depleting gases have had a distinct effect on climate at Earth's surface as well as at stratospheric levels.
http://utls.nerc.ac.uk/research/publication/gillet.pdf

Climate Change and its Effect on Migratory Birds
Long term study to identify and assess changes in the spatial distribution, abundance, and demography of the Black-Throated Blue Warbler and other bird species that breed in temperate forests. From the Migratory Bird Center of the Smithsonian National Zoological Park, Washington D.C.
http://www.natzoo.si.edu/ConservationAndScience/MigratoryBirds/Research/Climate_Change/default.cfm

A Plain English Guide to Exploring the Science of Climate Change
Kenneth Green, D.Env. examines the theory of the nature, magnitude, certainty, and imminence of environmental hazards, intending to represent the complexity of the subject while translating the major lines of evidence into mainstream English.
http://www.rppi.org/environment/peg3.html

The Threat of Global Warming
Provides an broad overview of the subject, including notes on diverse environmental topics and links to brief essays about threatened species and habitats. From the environmental organization EcoBridge.
http://www.ecobridge.org/

Climate Change and Global Glacier Decline
WWF paper that describes and explains glacier loss, and examines the risks posed to specific regions, habitats, and species.
http://www.panda.org/downloads/climate_change/glacierspaper.pdf

Climate Change and Wetlands
A paper by the Scientific and Technical Review Panel (STRP) of the Convention on Wetlands. Provides an overview of the importance and distribution of wetlands, and a detailed examination of the consequences of recent and projected changes.
http://www.ramsar.org/cop8_doc_11_e.htm

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Project FOE03103
A modeling case study by Friends of the Earth. Examines and assesses the effects of specific emissions from a particular enterprise, ExxonMobil, on atmospheric concentrations, changes in radiative forcing, changes in global mean surface temperature, and changes in sea level.
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/exxon_impacts_study.pdf

Habitat: Climate Change, Ecosystems and Wildlife
An overview of the growing evidence of the sensitivity and vulnerability of natural and human systems, including brief descriptions of threats encountered by specific species: golden toad, western toad, salmon and trout, polar bears, arctic fox, chinstrap and adelie penguins, gray wolves, painted turtles, and tree swallows.
http://www.defenders.org/wildlife/globalwarming/wildlife.html

Consequences of Climate Change on Life in the Bering and Chukchi Seas
A report about changes Alaska Native peoples observe in their surroundings, that pose a threat to northern ecosystems and to the subsistence way of life at the heart of Yup'ik and Inupiat cultures. Records of public meetings and individual interviews compiled by Greenpeace and Arctic Network.
http://archive.greenpeace.org/climate/arctic/reports/testimonies.pdf

Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS): Climate Change, Migration and Security
Explores the relationship between changes in the natural environment and different patterns of human migration behaviour, and the implications these patterns may have for the security community. Provides illustrative case studies from China and Pakistan.
http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca/eng/comment/com86_e.html

Plant Migration and Climate Change
Provides evidence from prehistoric and present observations, and recent mathematical analyses, to show that human activity has altered patterns of habitat expansion and seed dispersal. From The Scientific Research Society.
http://www.biology.duke.edu/clarklab/publications/american%20scientist%2085.pdf

Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change in Norway
Assesses sensitivity in the primary sectors: fisheries, agriculture, and forestry. From the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Oslo.
http://www.cicero.uio.no/media/2732.pdf

International Year of the Ocean: Impacts of Global Climate Change
A document prepared by various participating US Government agencies as a background discussion paper for this declaration. Considers the influence of the ocean in three parts: seasonal to interannual effects; decadal to centennial effects; and with an emphasis on US coastal areas.
http://www.yoto98.noaa.gov/yoto/meeting/climate_316.html

Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Australia
A report of the outcomes of a workshop for researchers and policymakers, sponsored by the Biological Diversity Advisory Committee. Includes an assessment of whether there is evidence for change that has already occurred, a compilation of knowledge about sensitivities of species and communities, and identification of key characteristics of ecosystems that result in high sensitivity.
http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/science/bdac/greenhouse/pubs/climate-change.pdf

Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production
An e-book from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Reports on the results of experiments to assess the direct and indirect effects, on crops and livestock, of changing hydrological, pedological, and plant physiological processes.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5183E/W5183E00.htm

Climate Impacts on Freshwater Systems
An overview of observed responses of the largest lakes in Sweden to a warmer winter climate. Provides brief studies of lake ice, water temperature, water discharge and water level, water chemistry, and biological life. Includes maps, graphs, photographs, references, suggestions for further reading, and links to related sites.
http://www.ma.slu.se/climate/Index.html

Climate Change and Infectious Disease
Demonstrates the importance of studying the volatility of infectious diseases as one of the earliest biological expressions of climate instability. From the Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, Boston.
http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/epi.pdf

Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change
A detailed report for the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) into the effects of dangerous anthropogenic interference on ecosystems, food production, water, and socio-economic systems. Studies include: processes causing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem damage; processes driving species endangerment and extinction; projected effects on species and ecosystems.
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Special Report: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change
A detailed assessment of the vulnerability of every region on the planet, in eleven chapters. Annexes examine trends and variations, models, and socio-economic baseline data.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/index.htm

Effects of Climate Change on Protected Areas
WWF paper that examines recent research and provides evidence that the types of environmental changes predicted in climatic models are now taking place. Studies the implications to habitats, ecosystems, species, and local food webs, in areas that are rooted in the concept of permanence.
http://www.panda.org/downloads/climate_change/wwfparksbro.pdf

Triangle Island Seabird Research and Monitoring Program
Studies of the status of populations over time in British Columbia. Includes an investigation into changes in plankton population blooms caused by the rising temperature of the North Pacific Ocean, and the effect of this on adult seabird survival and reproduction in two major colonies.
http://www.sfu.ca/biology/wildberg/bertram/triangle/index.htm

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply
Detailed analysis of a modeling study of the effects on crop production and its economic implications, coordinated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, for the US Environmental Protection Agency. Includes quantitative estimates of yield changes of major food, cash and industrial crops, prices, trade, and risk of hunger.
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/giss_crop_study/

Climate Change: Scottish Implications Scoping Study
From the Scottish Executive. Examines effects and influences across all areas of life, including energy, transport, domestic, public services, business, and agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/kd01/ccsi-01.htm

Gardening in the Global Greenhouse: The Impacts of Climate Change on Gardens in the UK
A technical report from the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). Reviews data from research on agricultural and horticultural crops, and in forestry and nature conservation; examines responses within the context of gardens, garden plants, and the garden industry; and identifies future research needs.
http://www.rhs.org.uk./news/climate_change/climate_technical.pdf

Polar Ice Sheets, Melting, and Sea Level Change
Presentation by Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University. Includes data, estimates, models and projections, discussion of key issues, graphs, photographs, and graphical representation of satellite altimeter measurements.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/0615Oppenheimer.pdf

The Fates of Low-Latitude Glaciers
Presentation by Lonnie G. Thompson of Ohio State University. Includes discussion of certainties and probabilities, photographic evidence, graphs, graphical representation of 20th century changes in ice cover, and distribution maps.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/0615Thompson.pdf

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Presentation by Christopher Field of the Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institute of Washington. Includes brief text and pictorial evidence of altered range limits, responses to experiments, responses to earlier springs, trends in plant growth across North America, and trends in US agriculture.
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/0615Field.pdf

Global Warming Facts and Our Future
An introduction to the subject, designed for teenagers and adults. Examines the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, causes and effects, predictions, and responses to change. Includes teaching activities, links, and suggestions for further reading. From the Marian Koshland Science Museum.
http://www.koshlandscience.org/exhibitgcc/index.jsp

European Guideline for Mapping Lichen Diversity as an Indicator of Environmental Stress
Proposes a standardized method to utilize the sensitivity and fast response of lichen, to assess diversity on tree bark. Includes detailed explanations of the principles of the procedure, sampling design, sampling procedure, data analysis and interpretation, and the data pool, report-form template, and references.
http://users.argonet.co.uk/users/jmgray/eumap.pdf

World Health Organization (WHO): Using Climate to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Review of the degree to which epidemics are sensitive to climate variations. Identifies candidate diseases and describes the conceptual framework for developing climate-based early warning systems.
http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/en/oeh0401.pdf

Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change
A Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Examines the natural variability, possible trends, frequency, and intensity of severe weather activity in tropical coastal regions, and explores the potential for change in greenhouse conditions.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/IPCC/

Alpine Lakes: Extreme Ecosystems under the Pressures of Global Change
Describes the sensitivity to environmental change of high mountain lakes, and assesses their use as early warning systems. Includes diagrams, graphs, references, and pictures. From Roland Psenner, Professor of Limnology at the University of Innsbruck.
http://www.eawag.ch/publications/eawagnews/www_en55/en55e_printer/en55e_psenner_p.pdf

Climate Variability and Impacts on East African Livestock Herders
A thesis in Microsoft Word 2000 document format, from Colorado State University and the International Livestock Research Institute of Kenya. Examines pastoral adaptation to climate and the vulnerability of the Maasai of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area.
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/scale/irc%20galvin.doc

The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland's Water Supply
An investigation of the effects of increased temperatures, changed precipitation, and shifts in the historic hydrologic cycle on the fresh water supply from the Bull Run watershed. From the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington.
http://www.tag.washington.edu/publications/papers/PortlandClimateReportFinal.pdf

Diatom Species Composition: Coastal Indicator Development and Information System
A study of species assemblages of single celled microscopic algae, often the dominant phytoplankters in Australian estuaries and the open ocean, to provide evidence of anthropogenic effects on aquatic habitats and water quality. From Dr. John Tibby, University of Adelaide.
http://www.ozestuaries.org/indicators/In_bio_diatom_species_f.html

Global Sea Level Change: Determination and Interpretation
A paper from the American Geophysical Union, intended to serve as an interdisciplinary resource for the non-specialist.
http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/dougla01/dougla01.html

Climate Change Threatens a Million Species with Extinction
Detailed press release reporting a study of biodiversity-rich regions. Computer models project the future movements and distributions of many species of plants, birds, animals, and insects, in response to changing conditions. From the School of Biology, University of Leeds.
http://www.leeds.ac.uk/media/current/extinction.htm

A Consortium for the Application of Climate Impact Assessments (ACACIA)
Aims to increase knowledge of the science of climate change and variability. Includes data sets, details of current projects, events, and publications, and links to related web sites.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ACACIA/

US National Institute for Global Environmental Change
News highlights, publications, initiatives and links to regional centers. Established by the U.S. Congress House of Representatives and the Senate, the center's mission is to assist the nation in its response to human-induced influence on the environment.
http://nigec.ucdavis.edu/

NAS: Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises
Detailed report on the mechanisms and possibility of rapid climate change, including the potential link with greenhouse warming.
http://www4.nationalacademies.org/news.nsf/isbn/0309074347?OpenDocument

Polar Meteorology: Climate Change
Information on the role of polar regions, including an interactive climate model, study questions, and links to related web sites. From the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~psguest/polarmet/clichange/index.html

Temperature Trends: Surface (CRU)
Land and sea surface temperature anomalies, analysed by the Climate Research Unit, Norwich, UK. Includes scientific papers, dataset terminology, file formats, data for downloading, answers to frequently asked questions, and links to related web sites, grids, and datasets.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

Temperature Trends: Atmospheric (Satellite MSU - UHA)
One of two conflicting analyses of atmospheric temperatures derived from satellite observations. Interactive tool showing satellite observations of regional and global trends in the lower troposphere and stratosphere. From the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/

UK Climate Impacts Programme
Assessing the likely environmental and economic effects of climate change in the UK. Includes background information, research, research tools and guidance, publications and newsletters, and answers to frequently asked questions.
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/

Temperature Trends: Surface (GISS)
Global Historical Climate Network data, analysed by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Includes background information, table data, individual station data, graphs, maps, animations, and references.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov./data/update/gistemp/

Mercury Rising: Bearing Witness to Climate Change
A photo-documentary production. Includes the report of an expedition by scientists and journalists in the Monteverde Cloud Forest of Costa Rica.
http://www.oneworldjourneys.com/climate

US EPA: Sea Level Rise Reports
Federally funded assessments of the dangers associated with rising sea levels, with a focus on what people should do today to prepare for the consequences. Includes maps of vulnerable areas, abstracts on beach erosion and barrier islands, saltwater intrusion, floods, coastal wetlands, dangers to other nations and estimates of future rise, plus links to the full PDF reports.
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/impacts/sealevel/index.html

Climate Change Linked to Civilization Collapse
National Geographic News story about the hypothesis that past climate variations led to the collapse of civilizations, with speculation on the implications for our society's future.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/02/0227_climate4.html

U.S. National Assessment - The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
Intended to provide a detailed understanding of climate-related problems facing the U.S. and to examine the possible coping mechanisms that exist to adapt to these problems.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/default.htm

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
A project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), to evaluate and synthesize knowledge of the consequences of variability, change, and increased ultraviolet radiation. Includes links to detailed studies in PDF format, six by the Steering Committee and one from a modeling and scenarios workshop.
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Search: a Study of Environmental Arctic Change
Examines the Arctic Oscillation and the possible feedback processes on ecosystems. Includes details of long-term observations, models, process studies, and application of results to distinguish between climate-related changes and those due to other factors.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/

Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS)
A collection of distributed information systems operated by government agencies involved in global change research. Includes multidisciplinary data from atmospheric science, ecology, oceanography, economics and sociology.
http://globalchange.gov/

Global Change Master Directory
Database including descriptions of several Earth science fields: the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and oceans, snow and ice, geology and geophysics, paleoclimatology, and human dimensions of global change.
http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Global Climate Change and Biodiversity
Summary report from an international conference presenting papers on topics that cover a cross-section of the planet's major biomes: forests, marine, high latitudes and montane, managed landscapes and coasts.
http://www.jncc.gov.uk/habitats/agency/resources/MJHGlobalclimatechange_14.08.03.pdf

Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks
An e-book version of the publication from the Board of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC), produced by the National Academies Press. Examines processes in the climate system that can either amplify or damp the response to changes forced by external factors.
http://www.nap.edu/books/0309090725/html/



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