Sports betting
Betting on team sports is an important service industry in many countries. For example, football pools are played by millions of Britons every week.
In Canada and the United States sports betting is usually illegal (Nevada offers full sports betting and the Canadian provinces offer government-run sports parlay betting). However, millions engage in it despite its illegality.
In Canada and the United States the most popular sports bets are made:
- against the spread; that is, the bettor wagers either that the favoured team will win by a specified number of points or that it will not. Betting the favourite is called giving the points and betting the underdog taking the points.
- against odds; the most popular types of bets against odds are simple bets that a team will win and over-under bets, which are bets on the total points, runs, or goals scored by both teams. In making an over-under bet, the bettor wagers that the total will be higher or lower than a total specified by the bookmaker.
- against a combination of odds and spread
In sports betting a parlay is a bet that two or more teams will all win. In the United States one of the most common forms of sports betting is the parlay card, on which bettors wager on the outcomes of two or more games. If all their picks win, they collect. Most such betting occurs in workplaces.
Staking systems
Many staking systems have been formulated in an attempt to "beat the bookie" but it is still widely accepted that there is no staking system that can make an unprofitable system profitable over time. Below are several widely used systems along with a brief explanation and risk analysis:
- Fixed stakes- a traditional system of staking the same amount on each selection. This method is good for conservative punters if the stake is kept below 5% of the bank.
- Fixed profits- the stakes vary based on the odds to ensure the same profit from each winning selection. This method is very good for conservative punters, although if the profitability of one's bets is independent of the odds the bettor is simply reducing his or her cash flow.
- Due-column betting – A variation on fixed profits betting in which the bettor sets a target profit and then calculates a bet size that will make this profit, adding any losses to the target. For example, to make a target of $100 profit a bettor would wager $50 at odds of 2 to 1. If the bet loses, the target becomes $150. If the next bet is also at odds of 2 to 1, the wager therefore becomes $75. This type of wagering is ruinous in the long run..
- Kelly (optimal) – fair odds (in the European/decimal format) need to be estimated by the punter and then the stake can be calculated using
Stake= (Odds/(Fair odds-1))/(Odds-1) Many times used with a divider (most commonly 4 or 8) depending on your bankroll (for betting)
This system was developed for baccarat but is widely recommended for horserace betting. In betting horseraces the stake is further adjusted to allow for inaccuracy in estimating fair odds. Computer simulations suggest that in betting horseraces Kelly betting increases losses during losing streaks, that it fails to demonstrate superiority over fixed stakes betting until large numbers of bets have been made (a drawback in horserace betting because the bettor usually has no reasonable expectation that any betting advantage he or she has will last over a long series of bets), and that its profitability has been exaggerated by the use of inappropriate statistical analyses.
- Martingale- A system based on staking enough each time to recover losses from previous bet(s) until you get a winner. A guaranteed way to failure- only way it would work is if you have an unlimited bankroll, your bookamaker has no limit on the size of bets and you are immortal!
See also
Bibliography
- Steinmetz, Andrew. The Gaming Table: Its Votaries and Victims Gutenberg text
- Thorp, Edward O. Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One
External links
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